Thousands Protest in Mongolia, Demanding Government Resignation

The prime minister suggested the protests may be driven by vested interests in coal trucking, opposed to the cross-border railway with China.

Thousands of protestors rallied in Ulaanbaatar's Sukhbaatar Square on January 11-12, demanding the resignation of the government led by Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene.

The protest, one of the largest since anti-corruption rallies in late 2022, could continue for several days. Protesters in Mongolia cite rising costs for utilities, vehicle taxes, and auto insurance, compounded by perceived government mismanagement and corruption, as key drivers of their discontent.

Initially concentrated in Sukhbaatar Square, the crowd later marched towards Ikh Tenger, the residence of the President and Prime Minister, where they were met with police barricades. The demonstration persists despite the frigid temperatures dropping to -20°C and below, with some estimates suggesting thousands in attendance. The scale and persistence of these Mongolian protests indicate a significant public outcry.

The core of the protesters' complaints revolves around recent electricity and utility hikes, deteriorating living standards, and the notorious air pollution and traffic congestion in Ulaanbaatar, which they attribute to the mayor's administration. The recent hike in auto insurance fees, though shelved later, appears to have been the final catalyst. Beyond these immediate concerns, there's a broader demand for tackling corruption, reducing high taxes, and addressing poverty and unemployment.

Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene has suggested that the protests might be fueled by vested interests linked to the proposed China Energy deal, particularly the cross-border rail project, which promises billions in investments and could significantly impact coal-trucking-related business owners and drivers. This accusation underscores complex economic and political dynamics, potentially straining ties with China's border provinces (particularly Bayannur) that rely on Mongolia's commodity trade.

In Mongolia, the prime minister’s efforts to pacify the situation include the announcement of dividend distributions (approximately $100 per citizen), but these have seemingly failed to quell the unrest. The recent dismissal of a high-ranking security officer (R.Chingis) has further fueled speculation about political transparency and the integrity of security management in the country.

With inflation at 9% in December 2024, alongside soaring utility prices, high taxes, and air pollution, the economic backdrop is tense. The protests extend beyond immediate financial concerns, highlighting fears about the proposed railway's impact on local coal transport businesses and livelihoods reliant on current export systems—or so the prime minister claims. He also accuses former President Elbegdorj’s top aide of financing and orchestrating anti-government protests.

The government's response to the protests in Mongolia — whether through dialogue, concessions, or enforcement—will be crucial. Past missteps, such as during the 2022 protests, suggest that mishandling could escalate tensions. The outcome depends on whether the government can effectively address or at least ease public grievances.

Politically, the Mongolian People's Party (MPP), governing in a coalition, holds a parliamentary supermajority and appears secure.

With parliament set to enter a long recess on January 24 until mid-March, immediate threats to stability are unlikely.

However, scrutiny over policy reforms and perceived overreach, particularly in public administration, is expected to grow.

To oust Mongolia's Prime Minister, a no-confidence motion requires support from at least 32 members of parliament (a quarter of the total 126). If this motion gains majority support (64 members), the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet are removed.

Unlike the 2010s, when government instability dominated politics, Mongolia has enjoyed political stability and policy continuity under Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene.