Mongolia's Election: Beyond the Smoke and Mirrors

While the ruling Mongolian People's Party (MPP) enjoys a comfortable majority, the pre-election period has been anything but smooth sailing. The opposition, particularly the Democratic Party (DP) and the National Alliance, find themselves battling internal divisions and navigating intricate legal hurdles that threaten to derail their campaigns.

The DP, once a formidable force, grappled with a bitter internal dispute over candidate lists. The highly publicized conflict surrounding the replacement of names of candidates when submitting to the General Election Committee (GEC) has exposed deep rifts within the party and raised concerns about its ability to present a united front against the MPP. This internal turmoil could significantly impact the DP’s performance at the polls, potentially paving the way for an even stronger MPP majority.

Adding to the pre-election drama, the GEC scrutinized the eligibility of several controversial figures. National Alliance leader and former Labour Minister Nomtoibayar, along with other opposition candidates with past legal troubles face an uphill battle to secure their candidacies.

Their nominations, despite Mongolia’s election laws explicitly barring individuals with active criminal sentences or convictions for corruption, have drawn criticism and fueled accusations of hypocrisy. Out of around 1400 candidates, 154 were denied candidacy by GEC, 76 had tax debt, and 63 had incomplete paperwork.

Within the MPP, the pre-election period has revealed interesting power dynamics. The far-left wing, led by former President Enkhbayar, failed to secure its desired share of candidate nominations, suggesting a diminished role for this faction in a potential future cabinet. Conversely, the presence of President Khurelsukh’s aides, including his brother Otgonbayar, on the candidate lists suggests the President’s continued influence within the MPP and his likely role in shaping future government policy.

Notably absent from the MPP candidate lists are prominent figures associated with former Prime Minister Sukhbaataryn Batbold's moderate, pro-business faction. This absence raises questions about the future direction of the MPP's economic policies and their potential impact on foreign investment. However, the inclusion of candidates linked to MCS, one of Mongolia's largest conglomerates, suggests that the business community will retain a voice within policy making circles.

Meanwhile, the National Alliance, under Nomtoibayar’s leadership, has struggled to garner widespread support. His campaign, focused on smaller government and reduced state intervention in the private sector, has failed to resonate broadly. The coalition’s inability to field a full slate of candidates (only 60% of the 126 available slots), coupled with Nomtoibayar’s own uncertain candidacy status due to legal challenges, casts doubt on the alliance’s ability to mount a serious challenge to the MPP.

The weeks leading up to Mongolia’s election are sure to be fraught with political maneuvering and legal challenges. Deciphering genuine political shifts from calculated distractions will be paramount for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of this strategically important nation and make informed decisions in a fluid political landscape.